The recent escalation of conflict in Myanmar, marked by attacks on security posts by ethnic minority insurgent groups, has resulted in thousands of people crossing into India, seeking refuge from the violence. Here are key points regarding the situation:
Ethnic minority insurgent groups in Myanmar launched attacks on security posts, leading to fresh fighting on two new fronts. The Arakan Army (AA), fighting for greater autonomy in Rakhine State, reportedly seized posts in the Rathedaung and Minbya areas.
Myanmar’s military junta, facing significant challenges since the 2021 coup, has been dealing with a coordinated offensive by ethnic minority forces since late October. This has included the capture of towns and military posts, posing a substantial test for the military leadership.
The military-installed president of Myanmar acknowledged that the country was at risk of “breaking apart” due to the ineffective response to the rebellion. The junta describes its actions as fighting against “terrorists.”
The Arakan Army reported capturing posts and engaging in ongoing fighting. Reports indicate gunfire and artillery bombardment in areas like Rathedaung, leading to residents seeking shelter. The conflict has extended into Chin State, contributing to the growing armed opposition.
Approximately 5,000 people from Myanmar crossed into India’s Mizoram state to escape the violence. The Deputy Commissioner of a district on the Myanmar border confirmed the influx of people seeking shelter from the conflict.
The military junta, already facing armed opposition in various regions, is stretched amid mounting challenges. The coordinated offensive, including assaults on urban centers, has strained the military’s capabilities, with reports of a fighter jet crash in Kayah State.
Analysts suggest that the military, experienced in fighting in specific regions, may struggle as enemy forces probe for weaknesses in multiple areas. The conflict’s escalation opens a significant new front for the regime, potentially impacting its ability to focus efforts across all fronts.
The situation underscores the complex dynamics in Myanmar, with multiple ethnic groups and regions involved in resistance against the military junta, resulting in a multifront conflict and cross-border migration seeking safety from the violence.
