UAE Signals Strategic Shift as Trump Returns to Office

UAE Plays Key Role in U.S. Strategy to Counter China’s Influence and Strengthen Energy Ties with India

During Donald Trump’s presidency, his foreign policy focused primarily on using the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a key ally to counter China’s growing influence in the Middle East. The UAE was a central partner in this strategy, particularly in the context of the energy sector, as the Trump administration sought to reduce China’s growing presence in Asia by deepening ties between the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and India.

A key moment in this strategy occurred on August 13, 2020, when the United Arab Emirates became the first major Arab country to sign the Abraham Accords peace treaty with Israel, a US-brokered agreement. The agreement marked a significant victory in Trump’s Middle East policy. However, his Middle East strategy faltered after Trump lost the 2020 election, and under President Joe Biden, China’s influence in the region has expanded while the US has declined.

By 2022, U.S. relations with key Middle Eastern leaders, including those in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, had deteriorated significantly. For instance, when energy prices spiked due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, the leader of the UAE, declined to take a call from President Biden. Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ignored Biden’s requests. This sharp divergence in relations with Trump underscored a shift in the UAE’s alignment, with signs pointing to a renewed engagement with the US as Trump prepares for a second term.

One of the most tangible signs of this shift is the UAE’s decision to award substantial contracts to expand its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, focusing in particular on the Ruwais LNG project. Once fully operational, the project will significantly increase ADNOC Gas’s LNG production capacity. Recently, contracts worth US$2.1 billion were awarded to upgrade LNG infrastructure, including the construction of a pre-conditioning plant, compression facilities and transmission pipelines. These efforts include collaboration with Egyptian companies, particularly amid the war in Ukraine, reflecting the strategy of the US and its allies to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian energy.

A significant agreement with the German energy company Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (EnBW) for a long-term LNG supply was one of the noteworthy contracts. 0.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG are involved in this 15-year agreement, which is the second of its kind between ADNOC and a German business. Due to its long-standing reliance on Russian energy, Germany played a significant role in the U.S. campaign to impose harsher sanctions on Russia, and this agreement highlighted Germany’s strategic shift away from Russian energy.

Although the UAE’s relationship with the US had deteriorated during Biden’s tenure, events in 2022, such as the discovery of Chinese activities at the UAE’s Khalifa Port, led to a shift in UAE policy. In response, the US government signaled a renewed interest in strengthening ties with the UAE. Subsequently, the UAE signed the UAE-Germany Energy Security and Industrial Accelerator Agreement, focusing on energy security and decarbonization, further signaling the UAE’s openness to strengthening its relationship with Washington.

Additionally, the United States and the United Arab Emirates have remained committed to the Abraham Accords, which remain the cornerstone of their alliance. Washington hopes that the UAE will once again be a trustworthy partner, especially in the energy industry, as Trump may run for reelection. The United States plans to invest heavily in the UAE’s oil and gas industries to increase production and to move more of its oil from China to India. As India is seen as a key counterweight to China’s power in Asia, the UAE’s energy resources could significantly enhance India’s energy security.

The UAE and India already have a solid energy connection, with ADNOC being the only foreign company permitted to store crude oil in India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which provides operational flexibility. India and the UAE could further integrate their energy sectors by strengthening geopolitical and economic ties that the United States can use to counter China’s influence.

Through these energy and geopolitical alliances, the United States seeks to counter China’s dominance in the Middle East and Asia, while also facilitating India’s alternative development plan to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The future balance of power in the region is expected to be significantly shaped by the growing alignment between the United States, the UAE, and India, supported by strategic energy partnerships.