UAE official warns of cooling relations with Israel if Gaza conflict persists

A senior United Arab Emirates (UAE) official has issued a stern warning, cautioning that the ongoing conflict in Gaza could transform the burgeoning relations between Abu Dhabi and Israel into a “cold peace.” The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to The Times of Israel, emphasized that the prolonged duration of the war could lead to increased isolation for Israel. Even the warm peace established through the Abraham Accords may eventually turn chilly, according to the unnamed UAE official.

This warning represents one of the most serious indications from any of Israel’s Abraham Accords partners—comprising the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco—since the outbreak of the conflict. These nations normalized relations with Jerusalem less than four years ago.

Despite the cautionary tone, the official clarified that the UAE is not contemplating severing ties with Israel. However, the relations could potentially mirror the cooler connections that Israel currently maintains with Egypt and Jordan.

Unlike the peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, which have largely remained at the government level, the normalization agreements under the Abraham Accords, particularly with the UAE, have been more comprehensive. Over a million Israelis have visited the Emirates, and trade between the countries has exceeded $5 billion.

However, high-level governmental ties between the UAE and Israel have faced setbacks since the establishment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline government in December 2022. The situation has further deteriorated during the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Despite this, Israel’s embassy in Abu Dhabi continues to operate, although public events and meetings have decreased.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has engaged in multiple conversations with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed since October 7. In a recent call, Netanyahu reportedly urged Bin Zayed to provide unemployment stipends for Palestinian workers barred from returning to jobs in Israel. However, the Emirati leader outright rejected this request.

Emirati presidential adviser Anwar Gargash recently emphasized the UAE’s commitment to its strategic decision in establishing relations with Israel. Gargash rejected the notion of severing ties over the Gaza war, explaining that the normalization was a strategic decision made for the long term, acknowledging that challenges were anticipated along the way.

Officials from other countries involved in the Abraham Accords, including Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, and Morocco, have echoed similar sentiments about the strategic nature of normalizing relations with Israel. They have indicated a broader regional approach, and they are not inclined to abandon the normalization efforts.

However, it is underscored that actions by Israel, particularly those perceived as mass displacements of Palestinians, could alter this regional calculus.

As the Gaza conflict persists, with casualties on both sides and geopolitical repercussions, the stability of diplomatic relations in the Middle East remains uncertain. The warnings from the UAE official underscore the delicate balance in the region and the potential impact of the ongoing crisis on international relationships forged in recent years.